Play Some BishStrategy · Chapter 3
Defending a forced call
The dealer's team had to name trump because everyone passed. That is your best chance to win the hand. Here is what to lead, and what your own hand says about your odds.
Lead your Ace. Never lead low from a long suit.
If you hold the Jack of trump, lead it. Leading an Ace first with the Jack in hand is about the same, so don't worry about it. With no Ace and no Jack, a low card is fine.
Leading a low card instead of your Ace costs your team about 13 points a hand on average. Leading a low trump costs about 9.
What to lead
You sit to the dealer's left, so you lead the first trick. We dealt 100,000 forced hands and played each one five times, changing only your first lead. Every other card was played the same way each time.
| Your first lead | You win the hand | Your side's avg points |
|---|---|---|
| Your usual lead: Jack of trump if you have it, then an Ace | 30.2% | +9.2 |
| An Ace from your shortest suit | 30.2% | +9.2 |
| A low card from your shortest suit | 29.2% | +6.1 |
| A low card from your longest suit | 28.2% | +2.1 |
| Your lowest trump | 27.4% | +1.0 |
Average points is how far ahead (+) or behind (−) the dealer's team your team ends the hand, over all 100,000 hands. Higher is better for you.
Leading your usual way wins about 9 points a hand. Every other lead gives some of that back. Leading low from your longest suit gives back 7 points, and leading a low trump gives back 8.
Why the Ace
A side Ace led first won its trick about 8 times in 10 in real games. It is the one card you can count on, and holding it back leaves it open to being trumped later.
When a low lead is fine
With no Ace and no Jack of trump, the choice hardly matters. Leading low from your longest suit comes out within half a point of your usual lead (34,000 of the 100,000 hands). The costly mistake is leading low when you hold an Ace.
How often you win the hand, by what you hold
Once trump is named you can see how hard your own cards hit it. These are your nine cards, counted after you have seen your kitty.
- You holdYou win the handYour ptsHow often
- 0–1 trump20%−2333%
- 2 trump27%+139%
- 3 trump42%+4522%
- 4 trump65%+1065%
- 5 or more83%+1541%
Trump length is the biggest sign. With four or more trump you are more likely than not to win the hand. With three you win about 4 times in 10, with two about 1 in 4, and with none or one about 1 in 5.
The Jack and the 9
| You are defending and hold | You win the hand |
|---|---|
| Jack and 9 | 71% |
| Jack, no 9 | 46% |
| 9, no Jack | 40% |
| Neither | 24% |
The Jack alone lifts your chance of winning the hand from 27% to 49%. Holding both takes it to 71%.
Aces outside trump
| You are defending and hold this many Aces outside trump | You win the hand |
|---|---|
| None | 26% |
| One | 32% |
| Two | 38% |
| Three | 44% |
Each side Ace adds about six points to your chance of winning the hand. That is a smaller effect than a trump card, but it is the reason to cash your Ace early.
What real games show
We checked this against 2,977 forced hands from real games on this site. The first leader's hand tells the same story. Defenders won the hand a little more often than in our test in most rows.
| First leader holds | Won the hand | Our test |
|---|---|---|
| The Jack of trump | 55% (395 hands) | 49% |
| No Jack | 30% (2,582 hands) | 27% |
| 3 trump | 44% (624 hands) | 42% |
| 4 trump | 61% (202 hands) | 65% |
There are too few real hands to say anything about which first lead works best. Players led an Ace 95% of the time when they held both an Ace and a low card, so there is almost nothing to compare it to. That is why the lead results above come from the test.
Two hands, trump is spades
Gold outline is trump. You lead first.
One Ace, short on trump
One trump and no Jack, so you win the hand only about 20% of the time. The long suit is hearts, but your Ace is in it. Lead the Ace of hearts, not a low heart.
The Jack and the 9
Holding the Jack and the 9, you win the hand about 71% of the time. Lead the Jack of trump. Leading the Ace of diamonds first is within a point.
How we know
We dealt hands by computer and kept the ones where the three players before the dealer would sensibly have passed, so the dealer was forced. The dealer named the suit with the highest count, as in Calling when forced. We kept 100,000 of those hands and played each one out five times, changing only the first lead. You win the hand when the dealer's team goes bait, and a half-bait counts as a win for you. That way the leads are compared on exactly the same cards.
Two caveats. In every line, the other seats played the same careful, consistent way, and real people are messier. And the table is about the first lead only. How to play the rest of the hand is a later chapter.
Updated 2026-11-05. Real-game figures come from 2,977 forced hands logged with their dealt cards.