Play Some BishStrategy · Chapter 5
Runs and bella in the count
The count in When to call leaves out runs. A run in your six cards is worth more than it looks.
Add 4 to your count for a run of three. Add 10 for a run of four or more.
With a run, a count of 25–26 is a call, not a coin flip. A run of three on a count of 23–24 is still marginal.
A run of three in your six cards goes bait about 14% of the time at a count of 25–26. Without it, 25%.
What a run does to a call
We dealt 400,000 hands and let the computer players bid. That gave 289,972 normal calls (not forced). For each one we recorded the count of the caller's six cards, whether those six cards held a run, and whether the call went bait. A run here means three or more in a row in any suit.
- Your countGoes baitWith a 3-runWith a 4-run
- 23–2428%24%n/a
- 25–2625%14%6%
- 27–2920%13%n/a
- 30–3214%9%2%
- 33 or more8%4%0.3%
The bar and the first percentage are for hands with no run. The two columns on the right are the same counts with a run of three, and with a run of four or more. n/a means there were no hands like that.
A run of three takes 4 to 10 points off the bait rate at the same count. A run of four or more takes off about 19 points at a count of 25–26, which is like a count in the mid-30s. In your six cards you will hold a run of three about 13% of the time and a run of four or more about 2% of the time.
The break-even is about 26% bait. At 23–24 a run of three brings the call to 24%, just inside it. At 25–26 it brings it to 14%, well inside.
Why add 4 and 10
We matched each run to the plain count that goes bait as often. At 25–26, a run of three goes bait 14%, the same as a count of 30–32 without one. At 27–29 and 30–32 it moves about one band too. A run of four goes bait 6% at 25–26, which is where a count of 33 or more lands.
Only one team scores runs in a hand, the team with the better run. A run in your hand can be beaten, which is why it is not worth its full 20 or 50.
The King and Queen of trump
The count already gives 6 for holding both the King and the Queen of trump. At the same count, holding them still lowers the bait rate a little more.
| Your count | Goes bait without | Goes bait with both |
|---|---|---|
| 27–29 | 20% | 13% |
| 30–32 | 13% | 12% |
| 33 or more | 7% | 4% |
Treat that as a small extra. Add about 3 to your count for the King and Queen of trump on top of the 6 that is already in it.
Bella is only counted in your six cards if you hold both before the kitty. The kitty can bring the other one. See The kitty.
Two six-card hands
You decide on six cards, before the kitty. Gold outline is the suit that would be trump.
A count of 25 with a run of three
Three hearts with the Jack gives a count of 25. The 10, Jack and Queen of spades are a run of three. With the run it goes bait about 14% of the time. Without a run, a count of 25 goes bait about 25%.
A count of 24 with a run of three
Three spades with the Ace and the 9 gives a count of 24. The 8, 9 and 10 of diamonds are a run of three. The run brings it to about 24%, just inside the break-even.
How we know
We dealt 400,000 hands by computer and let the computer players bid as they normally do. We kept the 289,972 normal calls and counted the caller's six cards the same way as in When to call. Each call was then played out to the end, and the bait rate is the share of calls that went bait. A half-bait counts as a bait.
Two caveats. The other players always play the same careful way, and real people are messier. And a hand with a run is usually a stronger hand in other ways, so these figures compare hands at the same count, not hands picked at random.
Updated 2026-11-05.