Play Some BishStrategy · Chapter 1
When to call
You get six cards, then you name trump. Three more come after. From the six, here is how to tell if the call is worth the risk.
Count it. 27 or more, call.
Count the six cards for the suit you would name:
- 5for every trump card
- +10the Jack
- +6the 9
- +3the Ace of trump
- +6King and Queen of trump together
- +4every Ace in the other suits
27 or more: call 25–26: coin flip 24 or less: pass
Count every suit and take the best one. If you are forced, see below.
Count your hand
Pick the suit you would name. Tell it what you hold.
Why the line is 27
Every bait costs you far more than a good call pays. So a call can only go bait about one time in four before you start losing points.
That puts break-even at about 26% bait. Here is how often each count goes bait.
- Your countGoes baitNet pts
- 19 or less50%−61
- 20–2236%−28
- 23–2429%−9
- 25–2625%+4
- 27–2920%+20
- 30–3214%+39
- 33–359%+58
- 36 or more4%+90
Net points is the average result of the hand for the caller, against the other team. It does not count what would have happened if you passed.
Length first, then the top two
How often the call goes bait, by trump held and whether you have the Jack and the 9. Everything else is as dealt.
| Trump held | Neither | 9 only | Jack only | Jack and 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 trump | 40% | 29% | 21% | 11% |
| 4 trump | 26% | 16% | 10% | 4% |
| 5 trump | 13% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
Trump length is worth more than any one card. Four trump with neither the Jack nor the 9 still goes bait only 26% of the time. Three trump with both goes bait 11%.
Aces outside trump count more than you think
With three trump in hand, the number of Aces you hold in the other suits moves the odds a lot. The Ace of trump barely moves them.
| Aces outside trump | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goes bait | 33% | 25% | 17% | 8% |
Three trump held. Holding the Ace of trump: 29%. Not holding it: 31%.
Where you sit doesn't change the hand
The same hand goes bait about as often, whether you are first or last to decide (37–38% in every seat). A later seat has seen more passes. That is information. It is not a better hand.
Runs, bella, partner, kitty
Runs and bella. They decide close hands. Runs alone average about 19 points a hand across both teams. You can't count on one from six cards, so the count only credits the King and Queen of trump.
The kitty. Three more cards come after you name trump. The count already averages over them.
Your partner. You don't know their cards. No one at the table does.
Dealer, and everyone passed
You have to name trump. Count all four suits and pick the highest count. It is the best you can do.
About 26% of forced hands count 27 or more. You would have called those anyway. The rest are a gamble, but not a hopeless one: even a count of 19 or less goes bait only about 46% of the time.
Chapter 2 has the full picture, with a tool that counts all four suits for you.
The count doesn't know it
Every number above treats the hand on its own. The race to 500 can change what you should do.
Judgment, not data yet. We haven't tested these. The Hard AI follows both.
Far behind, they're close to 500. A bait gives them 162 or more. Raise your bar. Let a forced dealer take the gamble.
Comfortably ahead. You can only go bait on a hand you call. Passing costs you little. Call only with a real hand.
Four hands, counted
Gold outline is the suit named. Count the six cards, then check the ladder.
Low trump, high help
3 trump × 5 = 15 · Jack +10 · 2 outside Aces +8
The 6 and 7 do nothing. The Jack and two Aces do the work.
No Jack, still a call
3 trump × 5 = 15 · King and Queen +6 · 2 outside Aces +8
Three spades, bella in hand, two Aces outside. No Jack needed.
Jack and nothing
3 trump × 5 = 15 · Jack +10
A Jack with two small hearts. A coin flip. The score decides.
Wrong suit for the Jack
3 trump × 5 = 15 · 9 +6
The Jack is alone in hearts. Name the suit you hold three of, or pass.
How we know
We dealt 400,000 hands and played each one out with the Hard AI in all four seats. The caller's first six cards were counted, and the result of the hand was recorded. Run and bella rates in the simulation match the 3,026 hands logged from real games.
Two caveats. The simulation plays like a consistent, careful table. People are messier, especially online. And a half-bait counts as a bait.
Updated 2026-10-14. We will rerun this as more real hands are logged.